It was just hours after George W. Bush had been re-elected President of the United States in 2004 that sportsbooks began posting betting lines on who would win a four-year lease on the Oval Office in 2008.
John McCain, the Arizona Senator, and Hilary Clinton, the Senator from New York, remain the frontrunners for the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively. McCain, because of his maverick nature, has appeal with moderates, swing voters and conservative Democrats. That would be a formidable foe in the general election but, ironically, that same independent streak—-he strayed from conservative orthodoxy on judges, taxes and gay rights--could hurt him in the GOP nomination process where Evangelical Christians and conservative activists, groups less than enamored with his stance on those issues, are a formidable voting block, particularly in the primaries.
Clinton has the opposite problem. While the former First Lady is wildly popular in Democratic circles and, should she decide to run, would be difficult to beat for the party’s nomination, remains a polarizing figure and could have difficulty winning a general election where many already have a fixed, negative opinion of her.
That said, most betting lines still favor a McCain-Clinton showdown in 2008, although juicy, double-digit prices abound for other hopefuls such as former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani (R), Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R), former Vice President Al Gore (D), Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (D), Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (D), former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D), Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R), retired General Wesley Clark (D) and Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D).
Posting betting lines and/or betting on the outcome of presidential elections are not new. The practices gained attention in 1948 when legendary oddsmaker and gambler Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder predicted that heavy underdog Harry S. Truman, who had been elevated to the presidency when Franklin Delano Roosevelt died in 1945, would beat GOP standard-bearer and heavy favorite James Dewey, the Governor of New York.
Snyder based his prediction on the fact that Dewey wore a mustache and his belief that women would find that the facial hair made Dewey look “sneaky.”
At least that’s the way the story goes.
Truman did prevail at the ballot box, famously holding up a newspaper whose headline erroneously proclaimed Dewey the winner.
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